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Mischief is one thing, but the incident makes one consider more damaging behaviour. There has been betting on the extent of wildfires on Polymarket and at wyldfyre.io, a startup focused solely on fires in California, which attracted so much negative attention that in August several senators demanded the CFTC shut it down. It isn’t hard to start a wildfire, or to help an existing fire grow. You can’t bet on assassinations or other violent crimes on Polymarket or Kalshi, though Polymarket’s offshore status and crypto-based anonymity mean that it monopolises trades on such events as Maduro’s capture or the ‘removal’ of the Iranian leadership. But it is easy to trade in predictions related to pandemics, say, or the screwworm outbreak currently killing cattle across the US. None of this is immune to deliberate human influence.
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