FORBES TGB Anti-Trust For The 21st Century

In Europe and elsewhere were are in the era of open banking. Third parties can have access to bank customer data — with customer consent, obviously — and there’s nothing that banks do about it. Who will benefit from this? Fintech, as was originally intended, or techfin, as seems likely?After all, requiring Big Banks to open up their customer data to Big Tech seems to create something of an asymmetric completive environment. In fact, a recent report from BBVA calls the development of a suitable regulatory response to this “one of the greatest public policy challenges”. They call on regulators to address the “imbalance on data access” between financial institutions and the S&P5 (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Facebook). I wrote back in 2016 that the major beneficiaries of the regulators pressure to open up the banks will be the internet giants who already have the customer relationships.

Of course, when I said it, no-one listened. But when the woman at the top of Europe’s second biggest bank weighed in, people began to sit up and pay attention: Ana Botín, executive chairman of Santander, told the Financial Times that the EU’s Second Payments Services Directive “needs to be reviewed for the digital age. The theory is good but it needs to be fair — at the moment it’s not symmetrical” and Ms. Botin, BBVA and I are not the only ones who think this asymmetry may not deliver the best outcomes.

A recent paper from the European banking industry, produced by the European Banking Federation (EBF), European Association of Co-operative Banks (EACB) and the European Savings and Retail Banking Group (ESBG) sets out the industry’s vision for the EU payments market in detail. There’s lots of interesting stuff in there, but I was particularly interested in their views on the regulatory issue that BBVA raise. Hence I couldn’t help but notice their comment on page six that “from a data privacy perspective, global BigTech’s existing data superiority combined with access to payments data should be concerning and could lead to unintended negative outcomes for EU citizens”. Indeed, and this is hardly a new revelation: It’s been obvious to any observer of the European payments landscape that it has been tilted. The competition to incumbent financial services providers will not be fintechs.

(Note that this is not just about payments. BCG say that BigTech is coming to the wealth management sector as well and will pose “a serious threat” to incumbents by offering bespoke new services to investors.)

Deutsche Bank Research published a report that went into detail about the dynamics of this emerging fintech and techfin battle. They say unequivocally that “competition will hence be distorted”. Their point is that banks will be subject to open banking regulation put into place by well-meaning regulators who want more competition in retail financial services, obliging them to provide customer data to all licensed competitors. BigTechs, on the other hand, have to observe the GDPR only and will de facto retain economic sovereignty over the personal data of their customers.

In short, regulators may well be creating the conditions to replace an uncompetitive oligarchy (as they see it) of banks with an uncontrollable oligarchy of internet giants. An Accenture report on the topic from last year noted (accurately, in my opinion) that “trusted social media companies (Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn) and tech companies (Google, Apple) will capture a significant slice of the [access to accounts] market”.

What to do? Well, in her FT piece, Ms. Botin suggested that organisations holding the accounts of more than (for example) 50,000 people ought to be subject to some regulation to give API access to the consumer data and it seems to me that this might kill two birds with one stone: it would make it easier for competitors to the internet giants to emerge and might lead to a creative rebalancing of the relationship between the financial sector and the internet sector. This points us towards a sound, global regulatory response to the need to create a level playing field: let us put in place a set of reciprocal rights and responsibilities. My old friend Simon Lelieveldt, who I always listen to on these matters, also suggests this as the way forward. He says that if the European Commission wants a “balanced” market with effective competition then it should “redress the design errors in the PSD-2 and allow banks to ask fees and allow them reciprocal access to the customer data”

Having discussed this idea with a few people, I’ve begun to think that is a more important, and far more wide-ranging, approach to competition in the new economy than I had originally thought. This thinking goes back to when I had the honour of chairing Scott Galloway, author of “The Four” (a book about the power of Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon), at the KnowID conference in Washington. Scott is  Scott makes a convincing case for government regulation of these global businesses. Just as the government had to step in with anti-trust acts of the early 20th century in recognition of the fascist nature of monopoly capitalism, so Scott argues that they will have to step in a century on and, again, not to subvert capitalism but to save it. His argument centres on the breaking up of the internet giants, but I wonder if the issue of APIs might provide an alternative and eminently practical way forward?

 

Two and The Four With Scott Galloway at KnowID

In the new economy, where data is the new oil and personal data is the new toxic waste, access to data is the resource that falls prey to monopoly. It is hard for a competitor social network to compete with Facebook because Facebook already has all my pictures. Sure, I can export my Facebook data and then set about re-uploading it somewhere else, but that’s a pretty significant barrier to competition, even though it’s my data.

So, yes, Open Banking. But open everything else as well. Particularly Open Bigtech. This sharing approach creates more of a level playing field by making it possible for banks to access the customers’ social graphs but it would also encourage alternatives to services such as Instagram and Facebook to emerge. If I decide I like another chat service better than WhatApp but all of my friends are on WhatsApp, it will never get off the ground. On the other hand, if I can give it access to my WhatsApp contacts and messages then WhatsApp will have real competition.This is approach would not stop Facebook and Google and the other from storing my data but it would stop them from hoarding it to the exclusion of competitors.

Forcing organisations to make this data accessible via API would be an excellent way to obtain the level playing field that the European banks are calling for. This would  kill two birds with one stone, as we say in English: it would make it easier for competitors to the internet giants to emerge and might lead to a creative rebalancing of the relationship between the financial sector and the internet sector. So, if the United States, the European Union and others wants to begin thinking about a global “PSD3″, in my opinion it writes itself.

China’s digital currency may set the benchmark, not Libra

As I wrote a while ago, the Chinese were first with the great transition from commodity money to paper money. They had the necessary technologies (you can’t have paper money without paper and you can’t do it at scale without printing) and, more importantly, they had the bureaucracy. In 1260, Kublai Khan became Emporer and determined that it was a burden to commerce and taxation to have all sorts of currencies in use, ranging from copper ‘cash’ to iron bars, to pearls to salt to specie, so he decided to implement a new currency. Then, as now, a new and growing economy needed a new kind of money to support trade and therefore prosperity. The Khan decided to replace copper, iron, commodity and specie cash with a paper currency. A paper currency! Imagine how crazy that must have sounded! Replacing physical, valuable stuff with bits of paper!

 

Just as Marco Polo and other medieval travellers returned along the Silk Road breathless with astonishing tales of paper money, so commentators (e.g., me) began tumbling off of flights from Beijing and Shanghai with equally astonishing tales of a land of mobile payments, where paper money is vanishing and consumers pay for everything with smartphones. China is well on the way to becoming a cashless society, with the end of its thousand year experiment with paper money in sight. Already a significant proportion of the population rely wholly on mobile payments and carry no cash at all, much as I do when heading into London.

The natural step from here is to create digital currency so that settlement is in central bank money and there are no credit risks. Now, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is run by smart people and as you might imagine they have been looking at this strategy since back in 2014. It now looks as if Facebook’s Libra initiative has stimulated or accelerated their tactics. I read in Central Banking [PBoC sounds alarm over Facebook’s Libra] that PBoC officials had “voiced worries” that [Libra] could have destabilising effects on the financial system and further stated that the bank would step up its own efforts to create an e-currency.

This is no knee-jerk reaction. Way back in 2016, the then-Governor of PBoC, Zhou Xiaochuan, very clearly set out their thinking about digital currency, saying that “it is an irresistible trend that paper money will be replaced by new products and new technologies”. He went on to say that as a legal tender, digital currency should be issued by the central bank (my emphasis) and after noting that he thought it would take a decade or so for digital currency to completely replace cash in cash went to state clearly that “he has plans how to gradually phase out paper money”.

(As I have written before, I don’t think a “cashless society” means a society in which notes and coins are outlawed, but a society in which they are irrelevant. Under this definition the PBoC could easily achieve this goal for China.)

What would be the impact of phasing out paper money? Yao Qian, from the PBOC technology department wrote on this subject back in 2017, noting (as I have done) that a central bank digital currency (CBDC) would have some consequences for commercial banks, so that it might be better to keep those banks as part of the new monetary arrangement. He described what has been called the “two tier” approach, noting that to offset the shock to the current banking system imposed by an independent digital currency system (and to protect the investment made by commercial banks on infrastructure), it is possible to incorporate digital currency wallet attributes into the existing commercial bank account system “so that electronic currency and digital currency are managed under the same account“.

I understand the rationale completely. The Chinese central bank wants the efficiencies that come from having a digital currency but also understands the implications of removing the exorbitant privilege of money creation from the commercial banks. If the commercial banks cannot create money by creating credit, then they can only provide loans from their deposits. Imagine if Bitcoin were the only currency in the world: I’d still need to borrow a few of them to buy a new car, but since Barclays can’t create Bitcoins they can only lend me Bitcoins that they have taken in deposit from other people. Fair enough. But here, as in so many other things, China is a window into the future.

Whether you think CBDC is a good idea or not, you can see that it’s a big step to take and therefore understand the PBoC position. There is a significant potential problem with digital currency created by the central bank. If commercial banks lose deposits and the privilege of creating money, then their functionality and role in the economy is much reduced. We already see this happening because “Alipay, WeChat Wallet, and other Chinese third party payment platforms use financial incentives to encourage users to take money out of their bank accounts and temporarily store it on the platform itself” [China’s Future is Definitely Cashless].

In summary, then, a couple of years ago I wrote that the PBoC were not going to issue cryptocurrencies and they were not going to issue digital currencies either (at least in the foreseeable future). What I said was that what they might do is to allow commercial banks to create digital currency under central bank control. And this indeed what seems to be happening. According to the South China Morning Post, the new Chinese digital currency “would be centrally controlled by the PBoC, with commercial banks having to hold reserves at the central bank for assets valued in the digital yuan“.

How will this work? Well, you could have the central bank provide commercial banks with some sort of cryptographic doodah that would allow them swap electronic money for digital currency under the control of the central bank. Wait a moment, that reminds me of something…

Yep, that’s how Mondex was structured 25 years ago. (If you don’t know what Mondex was, here’s something I wrote about it 20 years on.) There was one big different between Mondex and other electronic money schemes of the time, which was that Mondex would allow offline transfers, chip to chip, without bank (or central bank) intermediation. Would a central bank go for this today? Some form of digital cash that can be passed directly from person to person like Bitcoin rather than some form of electronic money like M-PESA, using hardware rather than proof of work to prevent double spending? Well, it was being tried in Uruguay, but I’m not sure how that pilot is going, although is was not quite the same thing as Mondex because the phones would not be exchanging fungible value but tokens that could ultimately be traced and tracked and monitored, but it’s interesting nonetheless.

 Mondex Paraphanalia
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When I wrote about this back in 2018, I said that I thought it was unlikely that the PBoC would allow anonymous peer-to-peer transfers, so I was very surprised to see a Reuters report [6th September 2019] quoting Mu Changchun, deputy director of the PBoC’s payments department, saying about the proposed Chinese digital currency that “its ability to be used without an internet connection would also allow transactions to continue in situations in which communications have broken down, such as an earthquake”.

This would seem to mean that the system will allow offline transactions, which means that value can be transferred from one phone to another via local interfaces such as NFC or Bluetooth. If so, this would be truly radical. I wondered if something was mistranslated in the Reuter’s piece so I went to the source speech (albeit via Google Translate!) and I discovered that this is in fact precisely what he said. Talking about the project, which is called the DC/EP (digital currency and electronic payment) tool, he said that it is functionally “exactly the same as paper money, but it is just a digital form” and went on to confirm that

DC/EP can realize value transfer without an account. In the specific scenario, as long as there is a DC/EP digital wallet on the mobile phone, no network is needed, and as long as the two mobile phones touch each other, the transfer function can be realized… “Even Libra can’t do this,” Mu Changchun said”.

Wow. That’s huge. Libra can’t do it, and never will be able to. To understand why, note that there are basically two ways to transfer value between devices and keep the system secure against double-spending. You can do it in hardware (ie, Mondex or the Bank of Canada’s Mintchip) or you can do it in software. If you do it in software you either need a central databse (eg DigiCash) or a decentralised alternative (eg, blockchain). But if you use either of these, you need to be online. I don’t see how to get the offline functionality without hardware security.

If you do have hardware security and can go offline, then we are back to the question of fungibility again. Here the PBoCs principle is both clear and very surprising.

Mu Changchun said that the public has the need for anonymous payment, but today’s payment tools are closely tied to the traditional bank account system, can not meet the consumer’s anonymous payment needs, and can not completely replace the cash payment. The central bank’s digital currency can solve these problems. It can maintain the attributes and main value characteristics of cash and meet the demands of portability and anonymity.

Wow. They are serious. He goes on to say DC/EP will work the same way as banknotes.

Commercial banks open accounts at the central bank, paying 100% of the total amount, and individuals and businesses open digital wallets through commercial banks or commercial organizations. DC/EP is still replaced by M0 and is legally compensated. For users, just download an app to register, you can use a digital wallet, and recharge cash withdrawals need to dock traditional bank accounts.

I wonder if this will bring interoperability? If DC/EP is really to work as banknotes do then the e-RMB in my bank app and my Alipay app and my WeChat app much be interoperable. I must be able to transfer value from my Alipay app to your WeChat app. If PBoC crack that they will be on the way to one of the world’s most efficient electronic payment infrastructures.

There was a final part to the speech which I did not understand at all, so perhaps a Chinese correspondent more familiar with DC/EP can clarify the meaning. The speech covers “smart” “contract” by which I assume PBoC means apps that use the DC/EP to execute on the handset (since there is no blockchain), but this is my assumption.

Mu Changchun said on several occasions that the central bank’s digital currency can load smart contracts. However, if a smart contract that exceeds its monetary function is loaded, it will be degraded into a value-for-money ticket, reducing its usable level, which will adversely affect the internationalization of the RMB. Therefore, digital currencies will load smart contracts that favor the monetary function, but remain cautious about smart contracts that exceed the monetary function.

I am baffled by this, which I am sure reflects my ignorace of advanced electronic money technologies, but I don’t think that this deflects from my overall observation that if the PBoC goes ahead and launches a person-to-person offline capable CBDC then that will be not only a nail in the coffin of cash but an event as significant and momentous in monetary history as the paper notes of the Khan a millennium ago.

Venezuela Is a Testing Ground For Digital Dollarization (and Zelle Doesn’t Like It) – CoinDesk

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Zelle specifies that its network is “intended for personal, not business or commercial use.” This means it’s okay to use Zelle to split up restaurant bills with friends or send $200 to your daughter to buy university books. But it’s prohibited for grocery chains or taxi companies to accept Zelle payments.

From Venezuela Is a Testing Ground For Digital Dollarization (and Zelle Doesn’t Like It) – CoinDesk:

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Venezuela Is a Testing Ground For Digital Dollarization (and Zelle Doesn’t Like It) – CoinDesk

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Ecoanalítica, a macroeconomic analysis company, recently tracked over 15,000 transactions in 10 different Venezuelan cities including Caracas, San Cristóbal and Puerto Ordaz. Around 56% of these transactions were conducted in U.S. dollars. According to Asdrúbal Oliveros, an economist at Ecoanalitica, 12% of all transactions were processed by Zelle.

From Venezuela Is a Testing Ground For Digital Dollarization (and Zelle Doesn’t Like It) – CoinDesk:

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Venezuela Is a Testing Ground For Digital Dollarization (and Zelle Doesn’t Like It) – CoinDesk

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Although Zelle is meant for U.S. usage only, Venezuelans have repurposed the network as a way to make dollar payments among each other. Large Venezuelan supermarket chains including Excelsior Gama, Automercados Plaza’s, Unicasa and Central Madeirense have enabled Zelle as a form of payment. Cafes and restaurants accept it. So do taxis.

From Venezuela Is a Testing Ground For Digital Dollarization (and Zelle Doesn’t Like It) – CoinDesk:

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Winnipeg grocery store owner says numerous customers have been victims of Bitcoin scams – Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca

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“As soon as we see someone (using the Bitcoin machine) and they’re on their cell phone, we always sort of interject just to make sure they’re not on the phone with (the scammers),” Morissette added. “Usually they are.”

From Winnipeg grocery store owner says numerous customers have been victims of Bitcoin scams – Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca:

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Venezuela Is a Testing Ground For Digital Dollarization (and Zelle Doesn’t Like It) – CoinDesk

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Although Zelle is meant for U.S. usage only, Venezuelans have repurposed the network as a way to make dollar payments among each other. Large Venezuelan supermarket chains including Excelsior Gama, Automercados Plaza’s, Unicasa and Central Madeirense have enabled Zelle as a form of payment. Cafes and restaurants accept it. So do taxis.

From Venezuela Is a Testing Ground For Digital Dollarization (and Zelle Doesn’t Like It) – CoinDesk:

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FORBES We’re going contact-free, not contact-less. Cheers!

Pubs can tell you a lot about a nation and its payment habits. Back in 2012, my favourite pub in the world was The Keystone. This was, coincidentally, the nearest pub in the entire world to the Consult Hyperion office at to Tweed House and on any given day, it was a racing certainty that you’d find at least one of us in there. I was instrumental in persuading the landlady to embrace the future of payments and go contactless.


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The results? Everything worked perfectly. The QuickTap with a BarclayCard MasterCard pre-paid PayPass application worked perfectly and forced the terminal online for authorisation. Watch the first test here on YouTube!

It made complete sense. The average basket size was under the contactless limit, lots of people want to pay with cards, everyone in our office at least never goes to the pub without a smartphone, and a 10-second tap-and-offline payment saves time (and is faster than cash) so the bar staff can get on with the more profitable task of serving customers.

A couple of years after this breakthrough, I went to Britain’s first robopub –
The Thirsty Bear in Southwark – in the pursuit of retail payments knowledge.


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The first thing that you will notice about The Thirsty Bear is that the tables have one iPad and two beer taps (one bitter, one lager) on them. The two are interconnected in an Internet of Grog, as will be revealed shortly. In the centre of the table is small credit-card sized recess. Here’s how it all works…


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When you go in, you give them a payment card and they give you a contactless card, called a “Tab”. I assume they auth the card at that point but forgot to ask. You find a table and sit down and put your Tab in the recess in the centre of the table. At this point the table is activated and you can either pull your own pint from the on-table taps (the iPad displays as flow meter so you can see how much you are pouring) or you can use the iPad on a rotating mount in the centre of the table to order food, drinks and sundries. The iPad showed you customer ratings for the ales on offer and we could have punched up a couple of pints of wallop but we preferred the time-honoured method of asking mein host to recommend beverages. He suggested real ale for the men and white wine or a fruit-based cocktail for the ladies, so we went with the darker of
Windsor & Eton Canberra s on offer. I can personally attest to its quality. When we were chatting about it afterwards, a couple of people did wonder why they bothered with the Tab and so on, since everyone in the pub had a smartphone. As I said at the time, “I expect they’re right and in time the tablets and the card will probably vanish”.

(I had the opportunity to chat to the manager of the pub and he told me that 55% of sales come through the tablets and 45% over the bar. He was very enthusiastic about the infrastructure. These are tough times for pubs in the UK but here they have year-on-year growth in sales. The manager attributed this to uplift at the tables, especially amongst groups after work or watching the football, as well as more room at the bar since the bar is not as crowded and that means more walk-in trade.)

A couple of years after my visit to “The Bear”, when I saw just how quickly apps were improving and (what with Apple Pay and Google Pay) beginning to integrate super convenient payments, I started to tell people that the future was going to be “App and Pay” not “Tap and Pay”. Hence I was unsurprised to see, in 2017, that Weatherspoons (one of Britain’s leading pub chains) announce their own app. I’ve never been in Weatherspoons, so I asked my son and he told me that he and his friends use the app all the time and have done since the day it came out.

 

And then along came COVID.

The British government has allowed pubs to reopen, provided they comply with some hygiene rules and I read in my super soaraway Sun that “lots of pubs are instead encouraging people to use apps” so that they can re-open safely and comply with the government’s virus safety regulations.

So, will the future of pubs and bars and restaurants and diners going to be contactless? No, it’s going to be contact free, as will everything else.

Why has the euro failed as a global reserve currency? – Central Banking

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“The main argument in favour of the US dollar remains the depth and the liquidity of the US dollar markets,” said Klöckers. “The amount of outstanding US government debt securities is around $20 trillion, the eurozone markets are fragmented and the ratings differ across countries, the total size is smaller.”

In April 2020 outstanding central government debt securities in the eurozone amounted to €7.8 trillion, according to ECB data. “The eurozone cannot compete here with the US,” said Klöckers.

From Why has the euro failed as a global reserve currency? – Central Banking:

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