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One of the methodologies to develop scenarios is the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach (OSPA). The OSPA approach starts with defining a very clear purpose and determining the exact intended use for the planning process. To develop scenarios, one might then establish a four-by-four grid along two axes, with each axis representing a particular driver of structural change (such as speed of technological adoption or increasing geopolitical fragmentation). Scenarios are then developed for each quadrant using the inherent characteristics of the axes and additional assumptions.
From: Once upon a time in the future: strategic foresight in central banks – Bank Underground.
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