Here in the U.K. we are having something of an issue with the economy. In order to get nice things, such as pay rises and trains that work, we have to improve productivity. And when it comes to productivity, we are behind. We are about a sixth less productive than our G7 friends and compared with them the contribution of capital deepening to labour productivity growth in the UK has, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) “been weak”. This is not new. When Philip Hammond was Chancellor of the Exchequer he pointed out that “the productivity gap is well known, but shocking nonetheless” and went on to lament that it takes British workers five days to produce what German workers produce in four, meaning that too many British workers work longer hours for lower pay than their counterparts.”
There are obviously many reasons for this sorry state of affairs. The economy is complex. Nonetheless, there are a couple of factors that stand out. In France (and to a lesser extent Germany) restrictions on working hours, industrial pay bargaining and limits on redundancies make hiring workers more expensive and risky than in the U.K.m which in turn encourages French and German firms to invest in technology.
There is a rather useful case study to illustrate how we diverge from our continental neighbours, and that is the car wash. Car washing is a big business (around half a billion pounds a year on commercial car washing) but instead of using the high-tech car washes at our local garages we (me included) pay people to wash our cars using the most inefficient means available: a hose, bucket, water, soap and sweat. The hand car wash has grabbed around half of the commercial car wash market in the U.K. (there are now 20,000 hand car wash sites in Britain) and the number of car wash machines has more than halved. We have successfully reversed industrialisation, which was the source of our rising prosperity of 7th last couple of hundred years.
As the economist commentator Duncan Weldon said “It’s more like the people are taking the robots’ jobs.”
One analysis of our productivity nightmare concluded that outside of London and finance, almost every British sector has lower productivity than its Western European peers. While the economy is not built on car washing, it does serve to illustrate what may be a core problem. According to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR), U.K. manufacturing industry is less automated than in just about any other similarly rich country. With barely 100 installed robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers in 2020, the U.K.’s robot density is below that of Slovenia and Slovakia.
In the robot league table, our old rival France currently ranks 2nd within the European Union ( and the U.K. would be in 10th place were it still part of the club). No guesses for who is in first place, of course. What does the mean for the economy? Well, look at the German automobile sector, which has twice the robot density of the U.K.and “As a result of the ongoing trend to automate production, employment in the German car industry rose by about 93,000 jobs to 813,000 during the period 2010 to 2015.”
That’s right. More spending on robots increased employment!
What’s the global trend? Well, half a million new robots were installed around the world last year – but only a couple of thousand of those were in the U.K. and the automotive sector has traditionally led in robotics, installations in that sector actually reduced by 42% in 2021. That wasn’t true on the continent where demand in the automotive sector was steady (and demand from general industry was up by a half). Things are going from bad to worse, because five years ago the U.K. had already slipped down the world rankings to 22nd place for industrial robot density and the most recent figures show that we continue to lag behind. While installations of general purpose robots in Europe increased by 24%, uniquely in Britain the number fell by 7%.
The problem has deep roots. Twenty years ago the British Automation and Robot Association (BARA) was greatly concerned by U.N. figures showing that in 2002, robot investment in the United Kingdom fell by two-thirds while across the world as a whole robot orders were up a quarter. That U.N. report showed that for every 10,000 persons employed in the United Kingdom manufacturing industry at the end of 2002, there were 36 industrial robots, compared with 135 in Germany, 109 in Italy, 67 in France, and 66 in Spain. It’s a long way back.
Let’s not make the same mistake in financial services. The City needs to go all in on this. As Professor Scott Galloway said, you’re not going to lose your job to AI, your going to lose your job to someone who uses AI better than you do.