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AI is likely to erode bank profitability as consumers start routinely using AI agents to optimize their finances (for example, automatically moving deposits into higher-yield accounts), which would reduce customer inertia and reshape industry economics. Agentic AI could disrupt deposits and credit card lending in particular by cutting through inertia. Today, $23 trillion of the global total of $70 trillion in consumer deposits sits in checking accounts with near-zero rates, while the remainder is parked in accounts that often pay relatively low savings rates, according to McKinsey Panorama data.3 If just 5 to 10 percent of checking balances migrated to top-of-market rates, an action that might be prompted by AI agents, that could reduce the banking industry’s total deposit profits by 20 percent or more.
The threat from third-party agents could be material. If banks don’t reposition their business models to adapt, over the next decade or so, bank profit pools globally could decline by $170 billion, or 9 percent.4 That’s enough to bring average returns below the cost of capital.
From: McKinsey’s Global Banking Annual Review 2025 | McKinsey.
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