If Bitcoin isn’t going to be used for crime, as I have previously mused,
By the way, the idea of money that isn’t fungible but that can be tracked, traced and monitored reminds me of Nitipak Samsen’s winning entry in the Consult Hyperion 2011 Future of Money Design Award. He said “Have you ever wondered where the money in your pocket had come from? Who was the previous owner? Who was the owner before that? Might it be a famous celebrity?”. It is interesting to me to see these different perspectives (Nitipak’s artistic imagination about the bastard child of Facebook and Bitcoin, and the more technical ideas about fungibility) coming together and, to my mind, again illustrates just why the FOM Design Award was such a popular session in the Tomorrow’s Transactions Forum. We (technologists) need artists to help us to imagine alternative futures.
then what is it going to be used for? Certainly not the purchase of goods or services, not as a store of value (except for speculators) and certainly not as a mechanism for deferred payments, since there is no real reason to imagine that it will still be around a decade from now. After all, “the total addressable market of people who want to buy bitcoin is very, very thin” [American Banker] and most of them aren’t in America or any other developed market. Last time I looked at the detailed figures pretty much all of the Bitcoins in the world were being bought for Yen, Won and (if I recall) Turkish Lire. It’s easy to understand why. As Bram Cohen succinctly described the situation a couple of years ago, “Bitcoin is more expensive and inconvenient than regular banking is, and far more expensive and inconvenient than regular banking could be if it starts supporting smart transactions on public ledgers without bothering with the baggage of mining”.
This robust (and accurate) remark from Bram (who happens to be the chap who invented BitTorrent) is just what the Bitcoin chaps don’t want to hear. As I’ve said before, and will say again (having being falsely accused of being “anti-Bitcoin” yet again), I think noted cryptographer Craig Wright’s observations on this topic are that ones that resonate with me. He once said that Bitcoin mining is “a security service that alone creates no wealth. Consequently, those using the network pay for the service”.
A shared security service that people will pay to use seems like a much better way to imagine Bitcoin than as a new form of payment or a new kind of currency. This shared security service may be used for a great many things, most of them as yet undiscovered, and I don’t doubt that people will try and possibly succeed to build a viable payment service on top of Bitcoin, but I am unconvinced that Bitcoin itself will be that mass market payment service to take on Visa and MasterCard.
However, continuing this line of thinking does give us at least an outline picture of the future, where some form of cryptocurrency is used as a secure global transaction service that underpins (but is not itself) digital asset trading. I understand the arguments for this to be a public, permissionless infrastructure.