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One common worry is that whoever makes a breakthrough first may choose to reap the rewards in obscurity, rather than broadcast the fact to the world. After all, says Mr Biercuk, “that is how high-frequency trading got started”. ■
From Quantum for quants – Wall Street’s latest shiny new thing: quantum computing | Finance & economics | The Economist:
In secret agent school, one of the first lessons you learn is the famous tale of the Zimmerman Telegram. You may recall that in 1917, Britain and Germany were at war. Britain wanted the U.S. to join the effort against the Axis of Edwardian Evil. The Kaiser’s ministers came up with an interesting plan to persuade Mexico to enter the war on the German side, thus dividing the potential U.S. war effort and eventually conquering it.
(At this point I thoroughly recommend historian Barbara Tuchman’s 1966 account of the affair, “The Zimmermann Telegram”.)
To execute this dastardly plot, the German Foreign Secretary, Arthur Zimmermann, sent a telegram to the German ambassador in Mexico, Heinrich von Eckardt. The telegram instructed the ambassador to approach the Mexican government with a proposal to form a military alliance against the United States. It promised Mexico the land acquired and paid for by the United States after the U.S.-Mexican War if they were to help Germany win the war. The German ambassador relayed the message but the Mexican president declined the offer.
Naturally, so sensitive a topic demanded an encrypted epistle and it was duly dispatched encoded using the German top secret “0075″ code. And here it is…

As it happens, “0075” was a code that the British had already cracked. Thus, the telegram was intercepted and decrypted enough to get the gist of it to the British Naval Intelligence unit, Room 40. In next to no time, the decoded dynamite was on the desk of the Foreign Secretary Arthur Balfour, the teutonic perfidy laid bare.
Now the British were faced with the same dilemma that faces the owner of the first quantum computer. How can you use decrypted data, recovered Bitcoin or falsified digital signatures for gain without revealing that asymmetric cryptography has been compromised and that you have exploited it? Consider the options:
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If the British had complained to the Germans, then the Germans would know that the British had the key to their code and they would switch to another code that the British might not be able to break for months, missing much vital military intelligence along the way. What’s more, the Americans would know that the British were tapping diplomatic traffic into the U.S.
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If they did not reveal the contents, they might miss a the chance to bring the U.S. into the war.
The codebreaker’s clever solution was to leak the information in such a way as to make it look as if the leak had come from the Mexican telegraph company: since the German relay from Washington to Mexico used a different code, that the Americans already knew to be broken, this was entirely plausible. On March 29th, Zimmermann gave a speech confirming the text of the telegram. On April 2nd, President Wilson asked Congress to declare war on Germany, and on April 6th they complied.
The point of this story is that stupid hackers would reveal their hand, but clever hackers would not. Which brings me full circle back to the question posed in The Economist: what if a billionaire’s hedge fund, a state-sponsored military research laboratory or an evil genius cryptocurrency whale is working on a quantum computer now! If they have any sense, they will keep it a secret, so how would we know?