Seriously, why does anyone rob banks? According to the most recent FBI statistics, there were more than a quarter of a million robberies in the USA in 2019 and 1.4% of these were at banks. Banks lost some half a billion dollars, or a touch over $4,000 per robbery. That doesn’t seem like a lot to me.Yet it is still sufficient to attract the robbers, because their needs are immediate and limited. So long as there is still a little cash in the till, there will be robberies. This is not an observation confined to banking, by the way. Cash begets crime. A study of the American Electronic Benefit Transfer (EBT) program found that “the EBT program had a negative and significant effect on the overall crime rate as well as burglary, assault, and larceny”.
There is a an old paper on “The Decision-Making Practices of Armed Robbers” that is a study of armed robbery in London based on first-hand research (viz, the analysis of over 1,000 police reports and interviews with 88 incarcerated armed robbers). While it’s about the UK rather than the US, I’m sure the thought processes of the perpetrators must have some similarities. Crucially, the paper notes that “almost all of these robbers evaluated the offence as having been financially worthwhile (aside from the fact that they were eventually caught and punished for their crime)”. So robbing a bank seems like good idea, if you exclude the possibility (in fact, the likelihood) of being caught.
One of the interesting snippets this paper contains is that a great many of the armed robbers in the UK use imitation firearms even though they could have access to real ones. I imagine that in the US the use of imitations is vastly less prevalent, since it’s presumably harder to buy an imitation gun than a real one there. Even so, and surprisingly (to a foreigner) only a third involved firearms only a third of US bank robberies involve firearms.
I note that the authors say that “even when the amount of money obtained was quite small (an element often touted in support of the irrationality of economic criminals), it must be recognised that even apparently small sums may be adequate for the offender’s immediate needs. Hence, gains may be subjectively much larger than they appear”. In other words, the guy in the Nixon mask isn’t robbing a bank to pay his way through college or to obtain seed finance for a start up, he just needs to buy a car or some drugs or whatever.
What robbers need, clearly, is innovation. If they hired a management consultancy, then I imagine that the standard practice would be to ask them to explore economies and scale and scope.
Economies of scope might be difficult. I don’t know if the typical armed robber is comfortable with the latest larceny techniques but I would think it is time for them to brush on mugging in the metaverse. Some of them have responded to this challenge already, of course. For example, in an April robbery in Canada, armed thieves tied up a man and stole his computers, bank cards and other valuables. They also took what the Calgary Herald described as “cryptocurrency keys”. Frankly, I’m surprised this doesn’t happen all the time. Or perhaps it does, and we just never hear about it.
The other way to tilt the cost/benefit analysis around bank robbery is through economies of scale. This what a gang of Brazilian bank robbers did last month. They first hijacked and burned vehicles to block roads, barricading the the police headquarters and main road. Then they moved into the city centre and robbed the branches of Banco do Brasil, Banco Safra and Caixa Econômica. They made their getaway by strapping hostages to their vehicles as human shields and scattering explosive devices with proximity sensors along their escape route.
(Brazil is a hotbed of technology-centric criminal innovation by the way. The introduction of an instant payments network there—it’s called “Pix”—has stimulated significant decentralised enterprise. Specifically kidnapping, which has surged in recent months.)
The thing is, if I broke into a bank I wouldn’t bother with the money. What I’d want is the data.