The approximate daily volume of bitcoin that PayPal processed in January ranged from $7 million to $71 million, according to Coinglass, a cryptocurrency analytics platform. Assuming trading volume hovers around the midpoint of that range for the rest of the year, the value of annual bitcoin trading volume would be roughly $14.2 billion in 2022. PayPal earns a transaction fee of up to 2.3% on the value of cryptocurrency transactions, meaning it would take in approximately $327 million in bitcoin-related revenue this year at the high end of that fee range.
Based on the $29 billion in revenue analysts estimate the company will earn in 2022, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, bitcoin-related revenue would account for just over 1% of revenue.
That percentage may expand over time. Executives said Wednesday the company was shifting its strategy to focus less on growing the number of PayPal accounts, and more on encouraging existing customers to use the platform more. The booming trade in cryptocurrencies could certainly be part of that strategy.
But for payments companies, cryptocurrencies simply aren’t that profitable. Block (formerly Square), for instance, attributed nearly 60% of its revenue to bitcoin transactions in the 12 months trailing September, but that segment accounted for just 5% of its gross profit. Shares of Block are down more than 30% this year, compared to the S&P 500, which sank 4%.