But we believe we are approaching an inflection point, where the promised potential
of blockchain will be realized and be measured in billions of users and trillions of
dollars in value. Successful adoption will be when blockchain has a billion-plus
users who do not even realize they are using the technology. This is likely to be
driven by the adoption of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) by large central
banks as well as tokenized assets in gaming and blockchain-based payments on
social media. By 2030, up to $5 trillion of CBDCs could be circulating in major
economies in the world, half or which could be linked to distributed ledger
technology. Tokenization of financial and real-work assets could be the killer use
case driving blockchain breakthrough with tokenization expected to grow by a factor
of 80x in private markets and reach up to almost $4 trillion in value by 2030.
We first wrote about tokenization in the 2021 Citi GPS report Future of Money:
CBDCs, Crypto, and 21st Century Cash. At the time, China was starting to pilot test
its (CBDC) and other central banks were warming up to the idea of their own digital
currencies. In recent months, central banks in multiple large countries have
announced plans for CBDCs this decade, giving almost 2 billion people the
opportunity to experiment with digital currency.
To be successfully adopted into the mainstream, blockchain needs the help of
technology enablers, including (1) decentralized digital identities, (2) zeroknowledge proofs, (3) Oracles, and (4) secure bridges. The legal plumbing also
needs to be altered to enable smart legal contracts that will provide a whole new set
of rails for global commerce and finance to run on. Regulatory considerations are
also necessary to allow adoption and scalability without the hindering innovation.
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