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IF YOU PICKED Seattle to win Super Bowl LX, there were multiple means to turn your hunch into cash. You could place a wager on a betting site like FanDuel or DraftKings. Or you might risk the same amount of money by taking a position in the prediction market known as Kalshi. In both cases you would have been rewarded.
But according to Tarek Mansour, Kalshi’s cofounder and CEO, those two acts are completely different. Kalshi is not a gambling site, Mansour says. It’s a marketplace, one regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It’s also a startup, and securing that regulatory approval might be its most impressive innovation. Kalshi is allowed to operate in all 50 states, 20 more than allow online sports betting, and it offers markets not only on sports and election results (its most popular categories) but also on a dog’s breakfast of events including tomorrow’s temperature in Philadelphia, Taylor Swift’s wedding date, and whether Elon Musk will start a Bluesky account before 2027. One might note that some of those categories are, well, prone to manipulation by inside players.
From: How Is Kalshi Not Gambling? | WIRED.
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AI models from Google, OpenAI and Anthropic lost money betting on football matches over a Premier League season, in a new study suggesting even the most advanced systems struggle to analyse the real world over long periods of time. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 fared best, with an average loss of 11 per cent and nearly breaking even on one attempt.
From: AI models lose their shirts on Premier League bets.
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Thus far, the story of prediction markets in America has mainly been about betting on sports, particularly in states where sports gambling is illegal. In California and Texas, you can’t legally bet on an NFL or NBA game on DraftKings or FanDuel — but thanks to a contested regulatory quirk, you can on Kalshi, for now.
From: Prediction Market Bubble: Super Bowl Proves Polymarket, Kalshi Boom – Business Insider.
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