Google’s former CEO Eric Schmidt, is the ultimate tech insider, and his insights around AI reveal a landscape changing so quickly that even he is struggling to keep up the pace.
Schmidt is specifically talking about the combination of large context windows, AI agents that can learn and improve themselves, and text-to-action capabilities. He says that these will have an impact on the world at a scale that no-one understands, yet much bigger than what he calls the “the horrific impact we’ve had by social media”. If we look at each of these factors in turn, we can see why Schmidt is making such a forecast.
First of all, large context windows, the working memory of large language models, are solidly on their way. My day-to-day model, Claude, can already hold 200k tokens (approximately 150k words) in its working memory. Millions or more are coming.
Secondly, agent-based systems, which autonomously execute multi-step tasks and adapt to environmental feedback, are poised to unlock significant economic value next.
Finally text-to-action capabilities will emerge, translating natural language into specific, working programs. Imagine your own personal programmer at your fingertips, ready to create whatever you envision. A dating app that matches people based on their Netflix viewing history and Spotify playlists?2 A prototype within minutes.
With these three capabilities in place, the
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n this paper, we study the staggered introduction of a generative AI-based conversational assistant using data from 5,179 customer support agents. Access to the tool increases productivity, as measured by issues resolved per hour, by 14% on average, including a 34% improvement for novice and low-skilled workers but with minimal impact on experienced and highly skilled workers. We provide suggestive evidence that the AI model disseminates the best practices of more able workers and helps newer workers move down the experience curve.
From: Generative AI at Work | NBER.
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Disseminating best practice is what management consultants were for.
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By moving from information to action—think virtual coworkers able to complete complex workflows—the technology promises a new wave of productivity and innovation.
From: Why agents are the next frontier of generative AI | McKinsey.
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Use case 1: Loan underwriting
Use case 2: Code documentation and modernization
Use case 3: Online marketing campaign creation