When Did Growth Begin?
New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870
Productivity growth began in 1600—almost a century before the Glorious
Revolution. Post-1600 productivity growth had two phases: an initial phase of modest growth
of 4% per decade between 1600 and 1810, followed by a rapid acceleration at the time of the
Industrial Revolution to 18% per decade. Our evidence helps distinguish between theories of
why growth began. In particular, our findings support the idea that broad-based economic
change preceded the bourgeois institutional reforms of 17th century England and may have
contributed to causing them.From Add to Buffer:
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An important debate regarding the onset of growth is whether economic change drove political
and institutional change as Marx famously argued or whether political and institutional change
kick-started economic growth (e.g., North and Thomas, 1973). Reality is likely more complex than
either polar view. However, our result that productivity growth began almost a century before the
Glorious Revolution and well before the English Civil War supports the Marxist view—articulated
for example by Hill (1940, 1961)—that economic change contributed importantly to 17th century
institutional change in England.
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